Don't Panic in this Market. Things Are Very Fluid.

Plus two winning trade results, an update on our insurance trade and our portfolios, and a special discount offer.

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The overnight events in the Middle East have rightly rattled markets as the present is uncertain and the outcome is both unclear and unknown. But from a trading standpoint, there is only one way to manage this type of extraordinary event, by staying focused and sticking to the trading plan.

Certainly, I’ve been positive about the recent gains in the market, while still being cautious. Two days ago, I wrote: “Of course, things could change in a heartbeat, but for the moment, stock traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates, making their de facto easing via T-Bond purchases official as the Treasury continues its back door easing through T-Bill purchases and balance sheet tricks.”

If there is a positive side to this market, it’s the fact that both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury have been adding liquidity to the market behind the scenes over the last few weeks as I noted earlier this week.

This week, we’ve taken profits on two positions as listed below:

· SOLD Skyward Insurance (SKWD). Bought 4/21/25: $52. SOLD 6/10/25: $60. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (15.38%).

· CLOSED Amphenol (APH) July 18, 2025 $90 Call up to $2.75. Bought 5/27/25: $2.80. Closed 6/9/25: $5.75. Return for this trade $300/contract (109%).

In addition, always follow the trading plan:

• Don’t fight the liquidity trend, which is positive

• Let the market stop you out of positions;

• If a position does not get stopped out, it’s a sign of strength and it should remain in the portfolio.

• Hedge when necessary

In this issue I am updating all Sell stops and pertinent portfolio positions while updating our insurance pick in case things get worse.

Important Announcement

My new book “The Everything Guide to Investing in Your 20s and 30s” is an excellent addition to your trading library as it crafts a multistage trading plan which is useful in all markets. For more details you can listen to my recent in depth interview on the Prudent Money Radio Show for details.

To celebrate the release of the book, I am offering a 20% discount special offer to the Smart Money Weekender Passport, which you can access here. But you better hurry, the offer expires on 6/17/25.Is it worth it?

Time’s ticking away on this offer. Subscribe now.

Market Update

The stock market is understandably pulling back this morning as events in the Middle East unfold. Yet, there is no point in panicking. Indeed, the market is in much better shape midday than it was at the open. Instead, stick to the plan.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) has hit a new high recently. Now, it’s all about whether it holds support. Keep an eye on the 20 and 50-day moving average and the action in the RSI which will tell us whether the market is overbought or oversold. The first RSI level to watch is 50. If NYAD holds above the key moving average support levels and does not fall below 50, the odds of a rebound are good. Also, keep an eye on the dip buyers. If they materialize as the news shifts, the bullish trend will have a chance.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is holding above 6000 with support at 5850-5950 and resistance at 6000-6100 area. A breach of either end of the trading range will tell us what’s next.

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) fell overnight, but did not break below 4.3%. This morning it continues to trade within a narrow and yet volatile range between 4.3 and 4.6%. A breakout above or below this range will likely have significant effects on stocks and other markets.